Key Facts

• • Russia Shifts Focus Beyond Ukraine: As the Ukraine conflict nears its end, Russia is escalating operations to destabilize Moldova, Armenia, and the Baltic states.
  • Costly Special Operation: Russia’s ongoing “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine has led to significant losses in personnel and equipment, severely impacting the economy.
  • Dual-Track Strategy: Russia seeks to reshape global influence through negotiations with the US while simultaneously destabilizing neighboring states.

Kremlin’s New Focus: Destabilization Beyond Ukraine

As the conflict in Ukraine nears its end, with limited gains and significant costs, Russia is strategically shifting its focus. US Intelligence sources reveal that Moscow is preparing for peace negotiations while escalating operations to destabilize Moldova, Armenia, and the Baltic states.

Ukraine Conflict: A Costly “Special Operation”

Russia’s “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, now entering its third year, has resulted in staggering losses of personnel and equipment, severely impacting Russia’s economy. The Kremlin aims to portray the conclusion of the conflict as a victory, a claim that is unlikely to be accepted internationally.

Dual Track Strategy: Negotiations and Regional Sabotage

Russia’s strategy involves engaging the United States in broader negotiations, potentially aiming for a reshuffling of global influence to solidify its status as a major power broker. Simultaneously, the Kremlin plans to destabilize neighbouring states, ensuring it maintains leverage over the EU and NATO.

Key Power Shifts Within the Kremlin

Internal shifts within the Kremlin reveal that the faction of hardliners—the “hawks”—has lost their exclusive authority over decisions related to the SMO. Decision-making now involves consultations with different factions, indicating a significant change in internal power dynamics.

Retaliation and Future Conflicts Planned

While some “hawks” are seeking a resolution to the Ukraine conflict on favorable terms, they are also planning acts of retribution against Turkish President Erdogan. Potential actions in Libya are also being considered. However, many of these plans lack feasibility.

Moscow’s Future Geopolitical Aims

Despite logistical challenges, the Kremlin’s hardline faction plans to initiate conflicts in regions critical to U.S. interests. Libya is being considered as a potential transit hub for these operations, underscoring Moscow’s ambition to maintain geopolitical influence despite setbacks.

Conclusion: A Dual-Track Geopolitical Strategy

This dual strategy—pursuing peace while simultaneously fueling regional instability—underscores the Kremlin’s determination to retain its geopolitical significance despite growing pressures both domestically and internationally. The world watches closely as Russia’s evolving strategies unfold.