Moscow Reacts

President Joe Biden’s decision to permit Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range missiles against Russian targets has triggered a fierce backlash from Moscow, heightening fears of a broader conflict. Russian state media, including Rossiyskaya Gazeta, condemned the move as among the “most provocative and reckless decisions” of Biden’s presidency. Prominent Russian lawmakers echoed these sentiments. Leonid Slutsky, leader of the pro-Kremlin Liberal Democratic Party, forecasted inevitable escalation with “serious consequences,” while Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov warned it was “an unprecedented step toward World War III.”

Critical Leadership

An internal Russian leadership agreement grants a faction of “hawkish” officials autonomy over military decisions until 15 December. This period is increasingly fraught, as battlefield setbacks continue to frustrate the Kremlin’s objectives. Mounting pressure on this faction to deliver tangible successes has intensified internal Kremlin tensions, with political fractures surfacing over how to respond decisively.

US-Russia
Relations

Complicating matters is the transition to a Donald Trump presidency in the United States. Initial overtures between Moscow and the President-elect have stalled, with Trump’s reluctance to engage further stymieing Russia’s efforts to recalibrate ties. Diplomatic negotiations have slowed sharply, leaving Moscow increasingly dissatisfied with Washington’s perceived inaction.

Russian Escalation

Recent weeks have seen a marked escalation in Russian military actions, including simulated missile strikes aimed at gauging US responses. Following a lack of Western retaliation, Moscow launched a large-scale missile offensive targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, reportedly depleting 22% of its missile arsenal. This move, however, breached prior understandings with Trump-era intermediaries to avoid further provocations. In response, Western powers—including the US, France, and the UK—approved controlled media leaks signalling their endorsement of Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons against Russian territory. This calculated move escalates the psychological and geopolitical stakes, underscoring Western resolve amid the ongoing conflict.

Kremlin Divisions

Amid these developments, the Kremlin is grappling with internal political discord. Reports suggest fierce debate within the Politburo over a proposal to mobilise an additional 500,000 troops. The proposal, driven by hardliners, has faced significant opposition, reflecting heightened tensions among Russian elites as military and political pressures mount.

Analysis

Biden’s approval of long-range missile use by Ukraine represents a significant shift in US policy, amplifying allied support but also exacerbating the risk of escalation. Russia’s potential responses—ranging from intensified missile strikes to large-scale mobilisation—could further destabilise the region and deepen divisions within its own leadership. With the 15 December deadline looming, the convergence of military setbacks, internal Kremlin strife, and shifting US dynamics creates a precarious situation. Analysts warn of a volatile trajectory as both sides weigh their next moves amidst intensifying rhetoric and heightened geopolitical brinkmanship.

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